Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Bellinghammers Election Predictions

Here are my predictions regarding this election. They contain some hopeful thinking, but I've read there is power in positive thought. I hope my predictions are correct, but expect to be wrong on some or most of them. We'll find out soon.

Local elections
Initial results released by the County auditor will show that the liberal/progressive candidates for county council are leading. It will also be noted that there are a large number of write-in ballots. When all the write-in ballots are counted our new county council members will be Kershner, Mann, Luke, and Knutzen. There will also be a big upset in the Bellingham City At large race with Orphalee Smith becoming the first ever successful write-in candidate to be elected to the Bellingham City council.

Orphalee Smith winning the Bellingham City At large position is obviously a long shot, but it would be very exciting if it turned out that way.

I believe Mann will best Teigrob based on how well he ran his campaign. He did an amazing job at utilizing social media including his Bellingham Herald Blog, facebook fan page, as well as some of the interactive aspects of his website. He kicked off his campaign with a hefty warchest. He prepared for this campaign by increasing his name recognition and defending the conservative/libertarian position on the PM Bellingham talk show he co-anchored. He had an excited group of volunteers supporing him. Ironically his main weakness may have been his involvement on the Planning Commission which in almost any other election cycle would have been viewed as a positive.

Statewide measures
R-71 is accepted by a decent margin.
I-1033 passes by a small margin.


Riley said...

What about Bellingham's 6th Ward? A come from behind win for Catherine Chambers?

Bellinghammer said...

Good question Riley. I considered whether or not to include my prediction/preference in that race. From a libertarian Republican viewpoint neither candidate excited me. My neigbhor had a Lillinquest sign up throughout the primary/general election cycle, but I did get a pleasant doorbeller supporting Chambers. I was actually surprised that I made your doorbeller list. In the end I opted for Chambers as she was not on the Futurewise steering committee like here opponent. Good luck!
I had hoped that Orpha Lee would have run as a write-in candidate in the 6th ward race instead of the at large position, but I don't know if she lives in that area of Bellingham. THAT would have made the race interesting to me and increased her odds for success.

Riley said...

Thank you for your vote for Catherine Chambers. The reason why you got doorbelled was because Catherine really sought out the conservative vote. Catherine's pitch is basically she doesn't always agree with conservatives but she is more than ready to hear them out and get their ideas on the table. Michael Lilliquist, well, I don't know if he has that sort of outlook.

Sunset-Orleans said...

Give me a break, Riley. You're basically saying Catherine's doorbellers weren't working off of a list at all.

Fine - I wouldn't either. The candidate appeal had to be to all sides. Which makes it a great election year --- and knocking on every door in a given area. If a 'walking list' were attempted, the doorbeller would have simply chucked it after the first block, realizing the list was less meaningful than the brief moments of real contact with anyone.

Bh'er: I'm glad you voted for CC - (perhaps partially based on the impression you received by a doorbeller). Personally, I'm of the mind that neither candidate should be on the City Council, but I think a positive impression based on a knock on the door is important.

Hats off to that anonymous campaign worker. Elections are incredible events, and doorbellers really have a sense of that.

Riley said...

I can tell you that we did use lists when we doorbelled. We sorted by how likely the person was to vote instead of by partisan identification.

Sunset-Orleans said...

OK Riley, makes sense. Thank you for clarifying.